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Just 48 hours to go.

The English side's opening match in Australia gets under way on Friday morning.

Drawing on analysis from CricViz, we explore where the highly awaited Ashes series in years could be determined.

It's tough to make runs, right?

Batters on each side of the Ashes divide might be wondering why they are even planning to show up.

A lot of the pre-series discussion has centred around the apparent difficulty of scoring runs, particularly for the opening match on a Perth pitch labeled a "lush, challenging surface".

When it comes to batting in Australia, particularly against fast bowling, no nation has been more difficult in which to score runs over the last five years.

There are two reasons for this: wickets and balls.

Overall, the pitches produced in Australia have recently proved to be the fastest, highest bouncing and among the least predictable in the world.

Speed and variable bounce are the ideal combination for tough batting.

A common belief from English cricket describes the Kookaburra cricket ball used in this country as a ineffective weapon for a fast bowler.

A new version of the Kookaburra was rolled out six years ago, resulting in more seam movement.

Seam is a much bigger weapon than swing in this country.

After the new ball's introduction, pace bowlers are conceding 25 runs per wicket in Australia.

Test match cricket is about problem solving.

When the ball is on top, batsmen's contributions can be the difference, and vice-versa.

If this Ashes be dominated by the ball, a batter could have the opportunity to be the key factor between the two teams.

What’s happening with the Australia seamers?

On this occasion, England have arrived in Australia with their pace attack mostly fit, while the hosts are the ones affected by fitness issues.

Skipper Pat Cummins will miss at least the opening match with a back issue, and Josh Hazlewood is unavailable for an unknown period because of a hamstring injury.

Pat Cummins, Josh Hazlewood and Starc were first united as a three-pronged attack for the 2017-18 Ashes.

From that point, they have taken together 81% of the wickets taken by Australia pace bowlers in matches in Australia.

Australia have seldom needed alternatives because of the effectiveness and robustness of the 'big three'.

When Australia have needed a back-up, Boland has been outstanding, taking 62 wickets in 14 matches at an average under 17.

Aside from Boland, other members of the backup squad have performed well.

Neser, Richardson and James Pattinson all average under 30 in domestic Tests.

The most recent occasion Australia entered a home Test without Cummins and Hazlewood, and lost, was in 2012.

The past two times they have competed in Australia without the pair, they have triumphed by a combined 694 runs, including a victory against England in Adelaide previously.

On the rare occasions Australia have had to go past their star fast bowlers, outcomes have not been affected – England should pay attention.

Challenging Openings

Recall the time England could not find an opener to partner Alastair Cook?

Sir Chef changed partners more quickly than Watford change coaches.

No more.

Ever since Ben Duckett and Zak Crawley were united at the top of the England order at the end of 2022, no opening pair in the world has scored more runs together.

Their success as a combination has been a reason in Zak Crawley being backed through some inconsistent times.

The Kent man, who famously struck the first ball of the last Ashes series for a boundary, has also been identified as having the game for Australia.

His average rises when the pace increases.

By contrast, Australia's top order is in a constant state of flux, still seeking to fill the gap left by David Warner.

Following Warner's retirement at the start of 2024, Usman Khawaja has batted with five different partners in 15 Tests.

Yet to debut Weatherald appears likely to become the sixth opener in 16 on the opening day, giving Australia an left-handed opening pair.

It's not only the openers that has posed issues for Australia.

Marnus Labuschagne, Australia's long-term number three, was moved to open for the World Test Championship final, then dropped entirely.

Home performances has earned him a recall, most likely returning to number three.

In seven Tests in 2025, the Australian top order have a combined average of 25.37.

Only the opening trios of Zimbabwe and the West Indies have done worse.

Spin war

For two so evenly-matched teams, there is a single department where Australia are unquestionably superior – spin bowling.

Nathan Lyon of Australia, all 562 Test wickets of him, is one of the finest finger-spinners to play the game.

Shoaib Bashir of England is a moderately successful selection punt, appearing out of touch after a broken finger, while Will Jacks is mainly a batsman.

It makes sense for the home team to want Nathan Lyon at the front, but spin bowling has been extremely challenging in Australia for the last decade.

During that period, slow bowlers have averaged almost 44 in Australia, albeit Lyon's statistics holds up well compared to the difficulties of visiting tweakers.

Lyon's other issue is physically getting on to bowl.

Recall the potency of fast bowling?

It limits the time Lyon has with ball in hand.

In the 2017-18 Ashes here, Nathan Lyon was bowling 50 overs per Test.

Last year, in five matches against India, it was only half as many.

Test matches in Australia are lasting about 25% less time since the updated ball was introduced, meaning the spinner has less space to influence the game.

Favorable Conditions?

The English team have a unfortunate tendency of being defeated in an away Ashes before Father Christmas has loaded his sleigh.

The series began in the Gabba, where they have not won since 1986.

Recently, that has been followed by a floodlit Test in Adelaide.

England have a single victory in seven day-night matches worldwide, while Australia have won 13 out of 14.

Then on to Perth, a city England have played at on 14 occasions since 1970 and won only one time, against a depleted Australia in 1978.

On this tour, the first three stops on the itinerary are the identical, only in a rearranged order and under different circumstances.

The Perth Test stages an Ashes opener for the first occasion, not at the famous Waca – scene of many an England humbling – but the modern Perth Stadium.

It is still a difficult task, though one the visitors approach with no past burdens.

The Gabba is the location for the second Test, the day-night fixture.

The most recent occasion Australia competed in a pink-ball Test at the Gabba, they were stunned by the West Indies.

Similarly, the Australians are now unaccustomed to playing daytime Tests at the typical floodlit ground Adelaide Oval.

Across two traditional Tests played in the City of Churches since 2014, Australia were defeated once, to the Indian team, in 2018.

The re-jigged schedule gives England a new opportunity at starting an away Ashes well, albeit with pitfalls.

The home side have won four out of five matches played at Perth Stadium, though the single loss came in the latest game – against India the previous year.

Each match at the new ground has been won by the team setting a target.

England often overthink floodlit Tests, when statistics suggest the pink cricket ball does not perform much differently from its traditional red ball.

The challenge in {day-night matches|