Ten years following the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that polarised the nation and unleashed disorder, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and electorate drifted into Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking convulsions for which no one is equipped.
That is the message from two prominent writers from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a potentially tense and monumental referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "It is my view that the political architecture of our islands remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Aims to Stir Debate
The team have examined the political, financial and societal reasons for any governmental shift in a book, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the issue with a series of speaking events that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everybody, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose implications have remained undefined because then you land with an extremely divided society where those defeated are unable to accept losing and the victorious side are uncertain precisely what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say this point is looming, and a group named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the likelihood, making it uncertain if and when there might be a national vote.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has obscured the absence of substantive discussion, said McBride.
"Many are for or against the concept but the actual thinking which may surpass that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has occurred in universities but hardly any elected officials or activists are willing to participate even with the basics. As an example, what sort of state might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the book, neither author endorses unity or the current situation. Both authors two essays that seek neutrality in laying out the case for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling economic and social statistics, historical precedents and structural examples.
Debates range over flags and symbols, duties, health services, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The goal is to enlighten and provoke discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," stated O’Toole. "Dialogue indicates an acknowledgement of the idea that there might be good arguments on each side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they favour unification but oppose greater financial contributions or implementing a alternative symbol to reflect pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"The Irish government must determine what the proposal from pro-unification movements is beyond just saying: 'We want a united Ireland and we love you'," said O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride believes a referendum in his generation is probable and that it may take place suddenly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a incompetent secretary of state who declares: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, legitimate arguments, he commented. "Somebody will succeed on this issue and the other side will ultimately be defeated but both parties has got important lessons to learn from the other's positions."
Call for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster must engage with the debate, urged O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish question."
